Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Fed Research Shows Drop In Oil Prices Due To Increased Global Supply & Inflation Expectations Were Up 3% in May

  • Liberty Street Economics, the research leg of the NY Federal Reserve published an article titled Is Cheaper Oil Good News or Bad News for U.S. Economy? The authors use correlations of oil price changes with different variables to show that the fall in oil prices is due primary to increased global supply. They also speculate that the effect of the supply shock is expansionary, but will have a "relatively modest stimulative impact on economic activity, which will peak around mid-2015." According to the post, the effects of the price decrease should fall off by early 2016. 
  • The results of the May Survey of Consumer Expectations show that one-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.0%. Median household income increased slightly, with more significant increases for lower income households. Household income growth expectations also increased slightly to 2.9%.